Bitcoin (BTC) is back at $ 57,000 as a new week begins after a late spike produced a much better weekly close than many expected.
To compensate for last week’s coronavirus-induced sell-off and associated drop in prices, Bitcoin topped $ 58,000 overnight before consolidating higher, still about 5.7% on the day.
The outlook could hold many surprises in store – coronavirus nerves linger as pre-opening macro markets suggest, and sellers still have the opportunity to capitalize on leveraged optimists on recent gains.
With everything to play and the month-end closing due in less than 48 hours, Cointelegraph takes a look at the numbers to see what could affect Bitcoin price action this week.
Bitcoin is recovering in record time
Just three days after losing $ 6,000 in a single daily candle, BTC price action has already returned from the brink.
At a classic end of the weekend, BTC / USD rose to a weekly close of 57,300 USD at Bitstamp – avoiding the lowest such weekend price in two months.
Profits have stayed since then, with $ 57,000 still in focus at the time of writing on Monday.
In a new analysis, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital found that the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $ 52,500 as a “proven bull market indicator” had offered support.
“Strong BTC response from the 21-week EMA area,” he summarized.
BTC / USD 1-week candlestick chart (Bitstamp) with 21-week EMA. Source: TradingView
However, despite local highs of $ 58,300, Bitcoin has yet to deliver a final breakout as the major resistance at $ 60,000 remains untouched.
All previous attempts to break this selling zone since losing it as support have resulted in a staunch rejection.
BTC 4h (linear):
Parallel channel pic.twitter.com/pqrEfHQoHr
– Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) November 29, 2021
The surge still surprised some, data shows, with liquidations of nearly $ 300 million in the past 24 hours.
The financing rates, which were neutral on Sunday, are now also rising, signaling the return of optimism about a reliable BTC price recovery – and the associated risk.
“All it took was a + 7% daily candle to allay fears and worries of a new BTC bear market,” added Rekt Capital.
BTC / USD, he said, “is doing well” when it comes to the end of the month, due late Tuesday.
Coronavirus and a repeat from March 2020
The macro markets expect a turbulent start to the week as the new Coronavirus variant Omicron continues to cut into the mood.
“We really need a few more answers to understand the impact on growth,” Priya Misra, global head of rate strategy at TD Securities, told Bloomberg on Monday.
“Risk-weighted assets price in uncertainty.”
The past week has been marked by great volatility across the board as Bitcoin and Altcoins stocks, oil and others followed in a lightning sell-off.
Asian markets are likely to continue the trend as it opened on Monday, with 1-2% drops planned at the time of writing.
With Bitcoin on the rise, further shaking of the macrostructures could stop the newfound optimism.
The bulls are hoping the scenario will play out similar to March 2020 when, as coronavirus hit the world stage, a cryptocurrency route subsequently sparked a surge that dwarfed previous price highs.
many seem to fear another Bitcoin liquidation event in March 2020. If you own your own keys and are not using leverage, this is a negligible problem is going to get rectilinear, humble and pile up
– ODELL (@ODELL) November 28, 2021
Nonetheless, Bitcoin didn’t get away with it last week as some familiar faces lined up to voice disdain for what they believe is by no means an escape from risk.
“Being less risky does not make Bitcoin secure,” argued Goldwanze Peter Schiff on Friday and predicted that Bitcoin would ultimately become “as risky as any Altcoin”.
BTC / USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
$ 50,000 echoes $ 30,000 ground
Those concerned about a retracement from current levels may not need to look too far down on the BTC price chart.
A huge buy wall is now in place and should keep the market above $ 50,000, according to the latest order book data from analytics resource Material Scientist.
The stakes could be high as some said this weekend that failure to maintain those levels would cause them to rethink their approach to Bitcoin, but given the sheer size of the support, it now seems less likely.
“I’m not sure why you are all so afraid,” summarized Material Scientist on Sunday on Twitter.
“This is the biggest bid since the 30,000 low.”
BTC / USD order book heat map. Source: Materials Scientists / Twitter
So if $ 50,000 is the new $ 30,000, it would rate the current retracement from all-time highs as modest compared to others – especially the nearly 50% slump in May.
Further, in the meantime, Material Scientist noticed something unusual – the same unit responsible for providing support also faced resistance at USD 70,000.
“Essentially, 1 actor has a handle on the entire market,” he explained.
“You knew 1 month in advance how the whole thing was going to play out.”
Thus, $ 70,000 is the landmark focus for bulls who expect the bull run to continue before the end of the fourth quarter of 2021.
D-Day comes for three bitcoin price correlations
The next few weeks will be “very revealing” for Bitcoin as it makes or breaks some significant correlations.
That was the conclusion drawn by popular Twitter analyst TechDev over the weekend as Bitcoin further replicated gold’s journey from the 1970s.
The strange, even eerie similarities between BTC / USD in 2020-21 and XAU / USD fifty years ago persist despite some volatility anomalies in Bitcoin price action.
Should the trend continue, Bitcoin faces a dramatic spike with a price spike of up to $ 280,000. Submission deadline: mid-February 2022.
“The 1970s gold fractal is now precisely aligned and anchored on both local highs and lows,” commented an update on events.
“Only December / January affected with model extension until the 1st half of February.”
BTC / USD vs. 1970s gold chart. Source: TechDev / Twitter
An accompanying breakdown of every projected phase of Bitcoin’s metamorphosis since September shows this month as out of forecast. December should see between $ 70,000 and $ 110,000 for BTC / USD.
Beyond gold, it is the Fibonacci sequences that dictate two more correlations that will have their moment of truth before their eyes in the coming weeks.
Both relate to Bitcoin’s relationship with its 2017 performance, and so far both remain in effect. If one wins the other, the pace and amount of the price gains change accordingly.
A high of around $ 150,000 could be hit as early as mid-December, or alternatively, it could hit $ 225,000 in mid-February.
“Mid-December to late January with a ~ 230,000 top remains my base case,” TechDev wrote.
“Obviously, the earlier side of this window looks less likely. I don’t care if it’s right. I’ve seen compelling work suggesting a high by mid-December through mid-March, with targets of 120,000 to 260,000.
In response to praise from Global Macro Investor’s founder, Raoul Pal, he added that the coming weeks would be “very illuminating” for all three correlations.
Where will Bitcoin “Moonvember” end?
This was once the talk of the town of the multimillion dollar question – but now there is a growing acceptance that this bull market may take longer than planned to mature.
Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies You Should See This Week: BTC, BNB, LUNA, MANA, SAND
Nonetheless, there is still optimism for the short term.
In a @bitcoin account poll conducted on Twitter that ended Monday, a majority of nearly 50,000 respondents predicted that BTC / USD would end above $ 60,000 in November.
35% opted for the highest possible price in the survey, and another 25.7% forecast a November closing price of between $ 55,000 and $ 60,000.
@Bitcoin Twitter poll results. Source: Bitcoin / Twitter
Without zooming out, it’s easy to forget how far Bitcoin has come in the past twelve months. As Cointelegraph noted, BTC / USD was trading at just under $ 16,500 on Last Thanksgiving – which also conveniently saw a brief sell-off -.
As quant analyst Benjamin Cowen summed up this weekend, “Don’t miss the forest for the trees”.
