Bitcoin (BTC) set up a showdown on a major moving average (MA) price trend on December 19, with time running out for a strong closing price in 2021.
BTC / USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
“I vote for us to ricochet and stay cop”
That price is currently the location of Bitcoin’s year-long MA trendline, a major historical line in the sand that has enabled a significant uptrend if BTC / USD maintains it as support.
“The 1-year MA is historically quite an important Bitcoin bull / bear pivot level, and we are sitting right on it now,” Philip Swift, creator of the on-chain data resource Look Into Bitcoin, commented.
“I am voting for us to ricochet and stay cop.”BTC / USD 1-week candlestick chart (Bitstamp) with a 52-week average. Source: TradingView
An upswing would leave plenty of room for recovery in order to reach a year-end price even slightly in line with earlier bullish expectations.
Among them are those of stock-to-flow model developer PlanB, who admitted over the weekend that its $ 100,000 target for 2021 is unlikely to be met.
He added that he wasn’t going to give up his models, what remain valid despite recent events.
Bitcoin needs a little miracle for 100,000 Christmas. If it doesn’t happen, will I abandon the S2F model? No, I actually like to be in the lower ligaments. In fact, I released the model in March 2019 on the lower bands with BTC below 4K. pic.twitter.com/L1m0jFGNYM
– PlanB (@ 100 trillion USD) December 18, 2021
No “Santa Rally” for Macro this year
The unusual end of 2021 has meanwhile also had an impact on the traditional markets, with the classic “Santa rally” nowhere to be seen last week.
Fed comments provided a short-lived performance boost, but overall progress was poor compared to the start of the year.
“Looks like mkts isn’t staging a typical Santa rally,” market commentator Holger Zschaepitz closed.
“Global stocks lost $ 1.8 trillion in Mkt-Cap this week as investors reacted to the restrictive Fed pivot, the surge in Covid cases, and positioned themselves with already elevated valuations by 2022.
The immediate outlook was not more favorable as the Coronavirus-Omicron variant triggered new economic downtimes that would last into the new year.